GP Workforce Retention: A National Delphi Study
A structured expert consensus study on the most important actions to improve retention of newly qualified GPs in the NHS, grounded in evidence from 864 recently qualified doctors.
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What is a Delphi study?
A Delphi study is a structured research method for building expert consensus on complex questions that have no single clear answer. The method was developed by researchers at the RAND Corporation in the 1950s and has since become one of the most widely used approaches in health policy research, clinical guideline development, and workforce planning.
The core idea is straightforward: gather a group of experts with different perspectives, ask them to rate statements anonymously, share how the group responded, and ask them to rate again. By repeating this process across two or three rounds with carefully controlled feedback, the method draws out genuine collective judgement — rather than the artificial consensus that can emerge when the most senior or confident voice in a room shapes everyone else's view.
Because all responses are anonymous, participants are free to reconsider their views based on the evidence, not social pressure. A statement that reaches consensus has genuinely persuaded a diverse expert group, including those who initially disagreed.
Why use a Delphi for this question?
GP workforce retention is exactly the kind of complex, multi-stakeholder problem the Delphi method was designed for. There is no single right answer, the evidence points in several directions, and different groups — newly qualified GPs, trainers, workforce leads, practice employers — have genuinely different perspectives that all matter for solutions to work.
This study is grounded in survey evidence from 864 GPs who have recently completed or are approaching CCT. The statements you will rate were drawn directly from what those GPs said about their destinations, intentions and experiences. The purpose of this Delphi is to turn that evidence into a prioritised set of actions, negotiated across all the groups who need to implement them.
How the study works
Rate statements drawn from the survey evidence. In any domain, propose new statements you think are missing.
See the anonymised group ratings and your own prior score. Re-rate statements without consensus and rate new proposals from Round 1.
A final rating of any statements still without consensus. Results are compiled into a prioritised consensus set.
Each round is open for two weeks. You can save your progress and return at any time before a round closes. Rounds are spaced across three months.
The nine topic areas
Statements are grouped into nine domains, each reflecting a theme from the Post-CCT survey.
- Pay and remuneration
- Contract security and employment models
- Regional retention and geographic distribution
- International emigration and return intentions
- IMG visa sponsorship and immigration barriers
- Career pathway clarity and progression
- System levers and workforce planning
- Wellbeing support and transition into independent practice
- Employer and practice-side factors
The rating scale
Each statement is rated on a 1 to 9 scale of importance for GP retention.
You may also add an optional comment on any statement. Comments are shared anonymously with all panellists in the next round.
Frequently asked questions
Questions? If your question is not answered above, contact the study team at study.delphi@kcl.ac.uk. We aim to respond within two working days. To access your round invitation, use the secure link sent to your registered email address.